Major EU state elects neo fascist leader

Major EU state elects neo fascist leader

Wild Card's progress: fully-fledged

This Wild Card came from: 
European Commission Framework Programme for RTD

The theme/scheme related to this Wild Card: 
Theme 8 - Socio-economic Sciences and the Humanities

The sub-theme that best relates to this Wild Card: 
Conflicts, peace and human rights

Likelihood timeframe and scenario features : 
now-2025

Wild Card's description 
The existence of political parties with far-right agendas is not a new feature in European politics. So what is really ‘wild’ or surprising in this event is the achievement of sufficient political dominance for a major EU state to elect a neo fascist or anti-Islam leader through, for example, national coalitions or major support of other far-right parties in Europe. Furthermore, potential collaborations between far-right forces, fundamentalists groups and extreme nationalist parties could also extend the far-right influence more globally. Ultimately, such extreme nationalist feelings could eventually break up fundamental European values and ideals such as the need for social cohesion and social inclusion, thus generating a climate of uncertainty and lack of consensus on the democratic constitution of European societies. Another wild factor of this event is the general public’s lack of understanding of how recent crises (such as the financial, housing and global humanitarian crises) have been caused or fuelled by right wing and laissez-faire policies. In other words, it would be surprising and ironic for the electorate to support far-right parties when the very same right wing way of thinking is largely responsible for the socio-economic challenges that Europe and the world are currently facing. Consequently, a very significant shift in long established patterns of voting and behaviour across many EU countries would be perceived as major wild feature of this wild card. Finally, an atmosphere of extreme philosophy, policy and political intolerance would possibly lead to the differentiation between first, second and third class citizens.